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Bulls on Wall Street
16 Day Trading Bootcamp

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Contents

Chapter 1 – Introduction
Chapter 2 - Technical Analysis
Value of Technical Analysis
Understanding the Dynamics of an Auction Market
How to Follow the Flow of Money
Chapter 3 - Charting Basics
Chart Setup
Price/Volume Relationship
Intraday vs. Daily Charts
Chapter 4 - Understanding Market Cycles
Accumulation
Run-up
Distribution
Run-down
Chapter 5- Define Your Trading Style
Daytrading
Swingtrading
Position Trading
Which type of trader are you?
Chapter 6 - Support and Resistance Trading
The dynamics of support and resistance
Types of support/resistance
Daily support/resistance trading for both daytraders and swingtraders Intraday support/resistance trading for daytraders
Highest probability support and resistance trades
Box Trading
Chapter 7 - Trends
Different types of trends
How to identify trends
Monitoring trends on different time frames
Chapter 8 - Timing the Trade
How to read and align multiple time frames
Overlaying charts to create precise entries
Chapter 9 - Analyzing Stock Market Indices

Analyzing the general market
S&P- our main market indicator
Dow Jones Industrial
NASDAQ - tech stocks
Russell - small caps stocks
Analyzing markets to see the current trend
Support and Resistance Zones in the Market
Recognizing Overbought/Oversold Areas in the Market
The Causes of Market Gaps and How to Trade Them
Chapter 10 - Market Breadth
Advances vs. declines
Reading Indices
4% breakouts vs. 4% breakdowns
New highs vs. New lows
Breadth Thrust
Chapter 11 - ETF Trading and Sector Analysis
Advantages of Trading ETFs
Our Favorite ETFs to trade
Analyzing Sector Strength Using ETFs
Chapter 12 - Risk Management
Determining Risk to Reward Ratios and Position Sizes
Tips on Managing Winning Positions to Maximize Profits
Types of Stop Losses and Exit Strategies
Managing Your Portfolio Risk in Conjunction with Market Cycles Handling gaps with Proper Risk Management
Chapter 13 - Breakout Trading
Traits of a Breakout
Flat Top Breakouts
Base Breakouts
Flag Breakouts
Intraday Breakouts
Chapter 14 - Trading Pullbacks
PB to moving averages
PB to price support
Breakout/Pullback play
20dma bounce
Oversold PB
Chapter 15 - Classic Setups
Double Bottoms
Symmetrical Triangles
Head and Shoulders

Chapter 16 - Our Go to Setups
PR Breakouts
Earnings Breakouts
Earnings Breakdowns
Red to Green Moves
Rubber-band Snap-back Plays
Bottom Bounces
Squeeze Zone Plays
One Dollar Roll
Bear Flags
Chapter 17 - News trading
Our Favorite News Sources
How to Read and Interpret PR's
PR Breakout Setup
How to Read Earnings Reports
Earnings Breakouts Setup
Chapter 18 - Trading and Handling Stock Gaps
What is a Gap?
Handling Gaps in Current Positions
Trading Gaps
Trading Gap Fills in Stocks
Chapter 19 - Everything Else
Scanning 101
Journaling
Brokers
News Sources/ Blogs
Using Our Platforms
Additional Charts

Chapter 1 – Introduction
I started trading in my first year of college. After placing my first trade in Exodus Communications, I was hooked. It was all I thought about and wanted to study. As I was learning my craft I had many ups and downs. I had times where I had large amounts of money in the bank and then days later it could all be gone. Such is the life of a 19 year old trader who has no real idea of what he is doing, but knows he loves doing it.

After trading on and off successfully, and blowing up numerous accounts, I decided after college to get a “real” job. While doing this job, all I could think about was the stock market. A couple years later I got into the recruiting business and started to make a very good living for myself. I was vice-president of my company at the age of 25. Even then, I always had the stock market in the back of my mind. That’s when I knew that I had to be a full time trader, as no amount of success or money could satisfy that constant urge I had to be involved in the markets. How many people are so lucky to find that type of passion at such a young age? I was truly lucky in that regard and it would have been a disservice to not follow that dream.

I believe that all people are meant to do something special and that everyone has a talent or a knack for something where they can be extraordinary. The key is to find it and embrace it. Its a sad thing to see so many people muddle through their lives just living to work, putting in their time and doing just enough to get by and making just enough to survive. So many people go through life and never find that one thing that moves them, that inspires them and gives meaning to their career. Other times I see people that do have a passion for something but are just to afraid to go after it. They are afraid to fail or that they won't be able to support themselves if they follow their dreams. That fear hangs over them for a long time before they finally let their dream be extinguished and then just live a life of regret. Most people never regret the risks they take in life, but they often regret the risks they DIDN'T take. I took that risk and it changed my life forever. I'm not only able to take care of my family and spoil them rotten, but I am able to live my life on my own terms and under my own rules. If you're like me and dream about the markets at night and on Sunday get goosebumps of excitement from the mark opening in a few hours...if you sit at your cubicle hating your job and your boss as the only thing you want to be doing is trading, then this class is going to be the tool that gets you where you want to be.

I’ve been meaning to write something for quite some time. As I've had the Bulls on Wall Street website now for years, I've interacted and spoken with over 1000 traders. From those conversations I started to understand why 99% of traders fail. It became evident that most traders end up going bust and never making it due to the same basic problems. What I found from speaking with so many is that most traders never develop their own METHOD. A system of trading that they can stick to no matter what. A system that gives them a step-by-step process and routine that tells them what to do every single day. Most traders will float from one method to the next constantly, always searching for the holy grail. One day they are momentum traders, the next they are value investors. They follow all these distinct styles simultaneously, trying to pick and choose from each one. This is not methodical--they have no edge. Often they are just seeking “riches” or excitement, with unrealistic expectations as to what they will need to do to develop expertise. Its been said that it takes 10,000 hours to develop mastery over a subject; if you're jumping from method to method, style to style, how can you get the repetition, the practice, to truly develop any level of expertise? To be a successful trader, you need an exact and clearly-defined method. You need to be able to identify stocks that fit your style of trading. You need to have an exact method of picking entry points, targets, stop losses. You need to be able to 1

measure your risk and then size the position accordingly. Once you have all that, to truly be a trader you will need to be able to manage that position and make adjustments according to market conditions. This is what the BULLS METHOD is. I've taken every piece of the trading circle and put it into a comprehensive method that takes a trader through:

1. Stock scanning
2. Vehicle selection
3. Picking precise entries
4. Setting targets
5. Measuring risk
6. Sizing your position
This will take you full circle. This coursebook will not guarantee you become a successful trader. It can give you the tools and knowledge to succeed, but it will still be up to you. To be truly great at something, you have to be a bit insane or borderline obsessive about it. That's the only way to master a very complicated subject in a very short amount of time. Doctors go to school for a decade plus and spend over $100k on their training before they ever pick up a scalpel. Imagine the work and suffering they go through before they finally have a chance to make the big bucks. Well you will have to go through the same type of trials and tribulations, but we are going to try to shorten the time frame from 10 years to months!

Chapter 2 - Technical Analysis
Technical analysis catalogs market data and establishes a system for finding trade ideas, picking entries & exits, and managing risk. It encompasses nearly all your trading decisions from steps a to z. I look at an average of over 1000 charts a day. I've been trading a majority of my adult life. Its safe to say over the course of my trading career I may have looked at and analyzed nearly 1 million charts. During this time, I would be studying numerous methods and styles, always looking for the holy grail. That perfect setup or indicator that would tell me when to buy a stock before it explodes. So far I have found no such pattern or indicator. Positive price action in the form of momentum is really the best way I have found to extract profit from the market on a consistent basis. The best way to do this is by following and trading trends. As trend/momentum traders we enter stocks as they start to show momentum and stay in the stock as long as it is moving in the anticipated direction, and then sell or cash out as that momentum fades. Using charts and timing techniques, we are always involved in stocks that are in constant motion and sit on the sidelines when that ends or there is indecision. We use technical analysis, which allows us to objectively measure the supply and demand at work in the stock market to get ahead and gain an "edge." We then conclude what could be next for the short term trend of the stock. Reading price action via technical analysis is about understanding the motivations of participants so that with high probability we can anticipate the next move based on historical patterns and then use that knowledge to exploit market inefficiencies. This provides us with market clarity, and reveals order amidst what appears to be nothing more than random chaos! Trading is all about timing the markets and the best way to time the markets is with technical analysis. You can't time stocks with fundamental analysis. No amount of research on the numbers of the stock can tell you when to buy the stock. Sure it can tell if a stock is cheap but can never tell when that “cheapness” becomes an opportunity for momentum to start. My goal as a trader is to enter a stock the 2

minute I see the momo and ride it out till the momo ebbs and then cash out. This is the most efficient way to use your capital as its not tied up in stocks that are “waiting.” As traders we need our cash to constantly be in movement in stocks that have the potential to trend in the direction of our purchase. T.A. can give us all the tools we need to time any stock/index/market. These clues and hints from technical analysis are written on price charts. The chart is the picture that speaks a thousand words! It allows us to measure the collective market actions of all traders in a graphical format. There is no guessing when looking at a chart, as there is no news or opinions or talking heads. A chart is formed solely on the actions of traders and what they are doing with their money. The stock market is essentially just one giant auction with buyers & sellers. In the end, everything is broken down into the two simplest things: SUPPLY & DEMAND (sellers & buyers). When you're looking at a chart, you're essentially looking at the supply/demand. By the end of this program, you will be able to understand market participants and see where the demand comes in on a chart and where there will be levels of supply that can stop price right in its tracks.

Over the years, many aspects of the market have changed: the advent of hedge funds, high frequency traders, government interventions, an increasing globalized world where everyone has access to all markets, etc. All this makes traders think that the market is ever-changing and that it's chaotic and random. Therefore the market can't be beat over the course of time, as small retail traders can't possibly have an advantage. Well I am telling you that 50 years from now we will most likely be trading in a very similar manner. The tools & techniques of technical analysis will still be valid, for this reason: The world may change, the markets may change but the behavior of people will always be the same. Traders will still rule and respond with emotions. Greed & fear will still be prevalent. Supply & demand dynamics will always be the same. There will always be buyers & sellers and levels where demand comes in on a stock and levels where supply is offered, as humans throughout history have always guided themselves in the same way. In the years I have been trading, so much about the world and the markets have changed, yet my method still works as its based on reading price action via charts. The charts will always show what is happening with market participants and what they are doing with their money.

Chapter 3 - Charting Basics
Charting allows us to see the actions of all traders in graphical format. Charting is the tool that takes what looks like random, chaotic data and forms it into a concise picture. We use charts to determine not only where a stock has been but also where it is going. In this chapter we learn what indicators can be used to confirm positive price action and exactly how we use them. We also learn how to read volume and how it relates to price on a chart. In the end, we will show you how to take these pieces of the chart and tie them together using multiple time frames to build a high probability, low-risk trade. Chart Setup

The primary component of any chart is price. A chart allows the collective actions of traders to be represented in a picture. We are not only able to see where a stock has been and what it has been doing but through technical analysis we can predict where a stock may potentially go in the future.

• Is there a discernible price trend or has it been bouncing around aimlessly? • How does the stock react around key levels on the chart? 3

Price tends to move in trends and trends are much more likely to continue than reverse. Identifying and then participating in those trends is the basis momentum trading. When setting up your chart, the first consideration is how the price data will be represented. The three most common options are candlestick, line, and bar/OHLC. Like the majority of active traders today, I use and recommend candlestick charts. Candlestick charts provide a concise yet robust representation of price data that can be quickly understood. Each candlestick, regardless of whether it represents one minute or one week of price data has an open and a close. The section of the candle between the open and the close is called the “real body.” If the close is higher than the open, the real body of the candlestick will be colored white or green, to represent a price increase. If the close is lower than the open, it will be colored black or red to represent a price decrease. Additionally, many candlesticks will have an upper or lower “shadow,” sometimes referred to as a “wick.” These shadows represent price action that occurred outside of the opening and closing prices, ie, the highs and lows.

Volume
After price, volume is the most important component of a chart. Volume illustrates the number of shares that were traded in the specified period of time. This provides the trader with several important pieces of information:

•Is the stock liquid enough to allow for easy entries and exits? •Is current volume higher or lower than average?
•Are more shares being accumulated or distributed?
The most common way to display volume is a bar at or near the bottom of the chart. Each candlestick will have a corresponding volume bar that illustrates the number of shares exchanged for that period of time. Many brokers and charting services will display red volume bars and green volume bars. A green volume bar is for a period of time in which the closing price was higher than the previous closing price, and a red volume bar for when the closing price was lower than the previous closing 4

price. This allows you to quickly see if there is more volume when a stock is moving up or moving down.
VOLUME is the fuel that can cause stocks to rocket. Any stock that is a big winner--a stock that goes up 20-100%--will have large volume behind it. The exact volume number does not matter a stock can have 200,000 shares traded or 200 million. That is not our concern. What we want to see is high relative volume. If a stock usually trades 500k shares a day, but in the first hour of trading has already traded 500k shares, we have an expansion in volume – high relative volume. Volume patterns can also signal a potential shift in the velocity of a stock and the formation of a new trend. Often stocks will show accumulation patterns when a new uptrend has commenced. Positive accumulation patterns are common in stocks right before a new trend is starting as the "smart money" and crafty traders are buying up shares in expectation of a large price move. Accumulation in a stock is simple to see: When the volume bars on the up days in the stock are higher than the volume bars on down days, the stock is in an accumulation phase. When a stock shows larger volume bars on down days vs up days, this stock is in a distribution phase and should be watched closely for a potential sell-off (which could be shorted)

In the example below, Sprint (S) made a significant move upward. The volume was above average, indicating that there was momentum behind the movement.

When evaluating a stock for entry, it is important to look at the volume pattern. For a long position, it's good to see high volume on up days and low volume on down days. This indicates that momentum is on the side of the bulls. The reverse is true when considering a short position: the ideal short candidate will have stronger volume on down days.

Moving Averages
A moving average is the mean of a stock's price for a specified period of time. For example, a 20 point moving average drawn on a daily chart will represent, in the form of a line, the average of the last twenty days' price. On a five minute chart, that same moving average would show the average of the last twenty, five-minute candles.

Moving averages come in two basic forms: simple and exponential. An exponential moving 5

average (EMA) averages the specified number of data points, but gives more weight to the recent price data. A simple moving average (SMA) does not weight the data based on recency. We use SMA or simple moving averages. The SMA 20,50,200. Moving averages serve 2 purposes. 1. To help identify trends.

2. As areas of support/resistance.
Stocks spend only a small portion of their time in a trending environment. Often they are range bound, consolidating for the next move up or down. Moving averages can help identify trends on different time frames.

20 SMA = short term trend
50 SMA = intermediate trend
200 SMA = long term trend.
The slope of the moving average will illustrate the direction of the trend for that particular time frame. The following daily chart provides an example of a stock in a clear uptrend, with the stock riding above the rising 20 (blue), 50 (brown), and 200 (green) moving averages.

In addition to providing a way to quickly determine the trend, or lack thereof, of a stock, moving averages can provide support and resistance for that stock. We will cover support and resistance in detail in Chapter 6, but for the purpose of this section, simply know that support is an area at which a falling stock will meet significant demand, slowing or reversing its descent. Resistance is an area at which an ascending stock will meet supply, thus slowing or reversing its ascent. 6

Moving averages, particularly the commonly used 20, 50, and 200 SMAs, can provide these areas of support and resistance, because many traders pay attention to them. Moving averages are just imaginary lines. There is no true price action in those areas, as they are just lines drawn by mathematical calculations. But, since they are watched by so many traders they become important as the collective actions of traders tend to repeat around such key levels. This does not give us a signal to buy or sell, but to examine the price action more closely on smaller time frames to see if there is a potential play when a stock nears such a key level. The following chart is an example of a stock's 20 SMA serving as support. Note how each time the stock touched the 20 SMA, it bounced, resuming its uptrend.

An example of a moving average acting as resistance.

Stochastics
The stochastic oscillating indicator, often referred to simply as “stochastics,” is a technical indicator that can help confirm price movements and momentum. The stochastic indicator uses a complex formula to illustrate areas in which a stock is overbought or oversold, and thus potentially due for a reversal. For more information about this formula, visit Investopedia.

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Stochastics are most useful with the daily chart of a range-bound (non-trending) stock. It is important to note that we use the stochastics overbought and oversold signals as secondary, supporting evidence to help confirm our evaluation of a stock as a long or short candidate. The stochastics signals are not accorded the same level of importance as price, volume, or moving averages, but can be a helpful piece of additional information to have available.

Below is an example of a range-bound stock that bounces out of its oversold zones. Note that when the blue line of the stochastics indicator dips below 20% it indicates an oversold condition. When the blue line crosses above 80% it indicates an overbought condition. This stock does not react as quickly or strongly to being overbought as it does to oversold.

Bollinger Bands
The final technical indicator we add to our charts are Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands are applied to the price area of a chart and are similar in appearance to moving averages, with the most popular configuration showing an upper band, lower band, and center band. The center band is a moving average, most commonly 20 point SMA, though it can be an EMA or SMA of any value. The upper and lower bands represent a specified standard deviation from the center band, with +2/-2 as the most commonly used values for the upper and lower bands, respectively. As a stock goes through a period of decreased price movement, the bands will narrow, indicating decreased volatility. Momentum stocks often have long periods of very minimal activity, punctuated by brief bursts of significant price increase or decrease, and Bollinger Bands can help identify these movements when they first occur.

We also use Bollinger Bands to identify stocks that are extremely overbought or oversold and are candidates for reversal. We will go into more detail about this powerful Bulls setup in Chapter 16. Finally, Bollinger Bands can act as support and resistance, as most stocks spend the majority of the time within the confines of the upper and lower bands. In the example below, the upper Bollinger Band acts as resistance, with the stock never breaking and holding over it, and the lower Band acting as support in March.

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In this example, a stock breaks out of a long period of low volatility in early February.

Price and Volume Relationship
The combination of a price and volume on a chart tell a powerful story. With price alone, we can see where a stock has gone and where it might be going next. Add volume and we can also see the strength of moves up and down and thus gauge the depth of market participation in those movements as well as the conviction of the participants.

While a stock can increase or decrease in price significantly on low volume, many of the most powerful moves are accompanied by an increase in volume. This is important because, as momentum traders, we are interested in stocks that are making, or about to make, substantial price movements. Higher than average volume on a move up demonstrates that the momentum is, at least temporarily, on the side of the long traders. Though this alone isn't a buy signal, when viewed in conjunction with positive price action and other technical factors, it can help us evaluate the strength of that movement and the likelihood that it will continue.

No stock moves in the same direction forever. All stocks either reverse or trade sideways periodically after running up or down and volume can help us tell whether the trend has ended or is 9

likely to continue. A stock that makes a significant upward thrust on high relative volume and then reverses on lower volume is more likely to continue upward after a period of rest than a stock that runs up on high volume and reverses on volume that is as high or higher. In the first case, the majority of long participants have held or added to their position on reversal, whereas in the second case a majority have sold or shorted.

In this example, the stock twice ran up on strong volume and then pulled back on significantly lower volume. This is a bullish volume and price pattern.

Intraday vs. Daily Charts
As day and swing traders it's important to use both daily and intraday charts to plan and execute your trades. The Bulls method begins with a daily chart of 3 – 6 months’ time. Price, volume, and 20, 50, and 200 SMAs are a must, along with stochastics.

The daily chart is used for idea generation. It illustrates the longer term trend of a stock and is the starting point for compiling a watch list of stocks to potentially trade in upcoming sessions. The price data, volume pattern, and moving averages will help you quickly get a general sense of the stock's trend, general areas of support and resistance, and current volatility. The stochastic and Bollinger Band indicators will help determine if the stock is currently overbought or oversold. Once we have identified a potential trade on the daily chart, we then switch to an intraday time frame to identify exact levels of support and resistance and to execute the trade. As daytraders, the intraday chart allows us to zoom in with more precision. Our intraday charts are 3-day, 5 minute charts. 10

We use price, volume, and moving averages. Stochastics and Bollinger Bands are less valuable on the intraday time frame
Sometimes, we want to look at an intermediate time frame – something between the daily and intraday. For this, we use a 10-day 30 minute chart, with volume and moving averages. This time frame is helpful for finding exact levels of support and resistance over the previous several days. For short swingtrades this time frame can be very helpful for finding your reward to risk level in terms of where your target and stop will be.

In chapter 8, we will discuss in detail how to use both daily and intraday time frames to plan and time trades with precision.

Chapter 4 - Understanding Market Cycles
Stocks are either in a period of consolidation or a trending period. As traders, we want to focus on the periods where stocks are moving in a recognizable way. We enter momentum stocks in trends and stay in them as long as they are moving in the direction of the trend. In this section, we will be learning the four stages and cycles that stocks enter. By learning how to recognize these different stages, we become more profitable traders because we know when to apply a particular style of trading. Accumulation

An accumulation period is exactly what it sounds like: a span of time in which individual traders and institutions are amassing shares of a stock. This period has no clear trend, but is a time of sideways movement that may precede price increase. During this period there is a contraction of price range, volatility and offers no real edge for daytraders. Also its very hard to time when this accumulation period will end as some stocks base out for years before moving upwards. This tends to be an inefficient use of capital as can tie up your money. As momentum traders we need to avoid these periods till a uptrend is formed.

On a chart this is what we call the "BASING" period. It begins after the completion of a downtrend where the sellers have started to let up and shorts start to realize their profits. The moving averages we use to identify trends on different time frames will give conflicting signals as its a trendless environment. You will often see them cross each other without rhyme or reason. This period is a time to closely monitor stocks. The end of the accumulation period and beginning of the run-up period provide some of the most explosive moves in the market, as a potential new uptrend may be forming. Negative news will often no longer affect the stock in this period, as everything is priced in and sellers are tired. At this point all it can take is one decent press release or piece of news to take a stock out of this range and propel it higher, starting a new uptrend, as there is so much pent up demand. Once a key level of resistance is broken and you start to see higher lows, the accumulation stage is over and we are into the run-up period.

Run Up
The run-up period is the most fun for traders, particularly those who play momentum. Once a stock comes out of the accumulation phase a whole fresh set of buyers come in (people like us!). We are all essentially going after a limited amount of shares, as the stock has little supply as it just came of a rather large base. This is when the moving averages start to slope and price breaks above, putting buyers firmly in control of the stock. The end of the accumulation phase and beginning of the 11

run-up will show very high relative volume. They will often be the biggest volume days since the stock tanked. Stocks will tend to move higher and faster then anticipated in this phase as there is very little supply of shares and traders are motivated to hold shares and go for the big gains. The first few pullbacks in this period will also get bought as traders live in fear of missing the "big one," so the minute the stock starts to show weakness a fresh set of buyers come in propelling the stock to new highs.

This period is the playground of momentum traders. You will see great volume patterns on any price thrusts followed by low volume consolidations or pullbacks. As long as the pullbacks are of relative low volume, the trend can continue without tiring. The late stages of this run-up phase are where we get the craziest action, as its an emotional frenzy: from traders who feel like they are missing out to short sellers who short too early and have to cover, to the momo traders who are in it giving the stock its one last push. At the end, the volatility in the stock will get very large, as will the volume when the stock starts to fail to make new highs traders all exit the doors at the same time, causing very sharp sell-offs. The pullbacks near long-term and large support levels, ie moving averages, will still be bought but when the bounces start to fail or become light a change in character is at hand and tells you to tighten your risk and watch for potential reversal

Distribution
The distribution period is similar to the accumulation period in that there is no clear price trend. In contrast to the accumulation period, however, this period is defined by distribution of shares, with savvy traders and larger institutions reducing or eliminating their holdings. This period comes at the end of a run up, as demand no longer exceeds supply and the price goes sideways. The dips in the stock become sharper and bounces get faded quickly as fresh supply is constantly offered. When you see the moving averages flatten out and start to cross downward this tells us that the trend is in danger of reversing. At t...

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