Essays /

Government And Its Role Essay

Essay preview

Government and Its Role
The Demographic Future by Nicholas Eberstadt (Foreign Affairs, Nov/Dec 2010)

Submitted For: International Business Environments Professor Andrew R. Thomas

Submitted By: Joe F. Dolder

October 2, 2012

Joe F. Dolder 


October 2, 2012 

Article Overview3
Utilizing current population statistics, mortality rates, and fertility rates, Nicholas Eberstadt projects the global demographic future for the next 20 years and what this future portends is a series of social and economic problems relating to a contracting work-force and an aging population. The century leading up to the Baby Boom generation saw an explosion in population stemming largely from medical and nutritional improvements. While birthrates during this period remained fairly constant, and even declined in the latter part of the century, life expectancy doubled. This meant an increasingly younger and more innovative work-force that fueled one of the most economically prosperous periods in history. However, by the advent of the Baby Boom generation in the US, widespread use of increasingly more effective forms of birth control and later the increased use and cultural acceptability of feticide fueled a global, sustained fertility rate decline. What is striking about the global decline in fertility rates is that they are not confined to the developed world. While virtually the entire developed world has fertility rates that are at or below replacement levels, this accounts for less than 20% of the world’s population. The vast majority of countries with sub-replacement fertility rates are in low-income countries such as China. This lack of socioeconomic correlation with fertility rates makes it difficult to predict when a country will enter such a state and how long it will last. This lack of socioeconomic correlation may be due to the developed world’s intervention in low-income and third world nations, both culturally and in the subsidized distribution of birth-control, abortifacients, and abortion services. A shrinking population due to reduced fertility rates invariably means an aging population. These two factors adumbrate a host of problems. An older workforce generally means a less healthy, less educated, and less tech-savvy workforce. Additionally, a dwindling working age population will mean that inefficiencies in the use of human capital will be more keenly felt as human capital growth will no longer act to balance it. Finally, smaller workforce/retiree ratios will put tremendous pressure on successive generations and their governments to keep in place entitlement programs and tend to the needs of the aging.

Government and Its Role   

International Business Environments 


Joe F. Dolder 


October 2, 2012 

Eberstadt states that the economic profile of the world will depend largely on the economies of the six major economies: China, India, Japan, Russia, Western Europe, and the United States. Each of these countries faces unique demographic challenges. China is particularly affected by demographic changes because it has such a large population, is a lowincome country, and its coercive population-control measures have exacerbated their demographic problems, both in terms of an aging population and skewed male/female ratios. Since 1992, Russia’s deaths have outnumbered its births by 50% and average life expectancy is less now than it was half a century ago. Additionally, the surplus of mortalities that it is experiencing seems concentrated in its working-age population (20-50 year olds). India’s population is set to grow by 1% per year over the next 20 years, but regional disparities mean that its surplus population will be located in the rural, less educated north where it is less likely to fuel economic prosperity for the country. Currently, India lacks the educational infrastructure necessary to take f...

Read more


-50 1 1.0 100 150 19 1980 1990 1992 2 20 2008 2010 2011 2012 2050 20502 21 3 3.0 4 5 5.0 50 6 7 8 9 abandon abort abortifaci absurd accept accompani account achiev act addit address administr adrian adumbr advantag advent advoc advocates3 affair affect affluent afford after-tax age agglomer ago alreadi also alway america amount analysi and/or andrea andrew anoth anticip appear appreci april apropo apt arduous area arena argu arguabl argument articl assess assimil assist assur attempt attribut author auto avail averag away babi back balanc bear becom began begin behind benefit best better beyond birth birth-control birthrat blur bodi bogus boom boomer boon bracket brain break briberi bring brought built burden burdensom busi campbel cannot capit care case catch catch-up caveat central centuri certain challeng champion chang children china choos chosen citizen class class-warfar clear close code coerciv cogent coggan come common commonsens compani compar compel compet competitor complex comput conceal concentr concern conciliatori condit confin consequ consist constant constitu consumpt context continu contract contribut contributing/working contributori control convinc copi correct correl could countri country4 coupl creat crisi criteria croni cronyism cultur cumbersom curb current damag death debt decis declin decreas deduct defens defin democraci demograph depend develop development5 differ differenti difficult disabl discount discourag discuss dispar disput distil distribut divert divis dolder domin doubl drain drawback drove due dwindl e.g earli eberstadt econom economi economist economy1 edit educ effect effici effort eisenhow either elder element elimin employe empti encourag engin enough ensur enter entir entitl entrepreneuri environ equal especi europ even event ever ever-increas everi exacerb examin exampl except exhaust expect experi experienc explos eye f face facilit fact factor fail fair fall famili far favor felt fertil feticid fewer final financ first fiscal five focus follow forc foreign form freedom fuel full fund futur gaap gdp general generat give given global go goal govern gradual gray greatest grow growth half half-centuri hamper hand har hard harper hast he/she heal health healthi healthier heavili help herald high higher highway hindsight histori home hope host hover howev human humbl i.e ideal idl immigr impair impend implement import imposs improv inabl incent includ incom increas inde indefatig india individu ineffici influx infrastructur initi innov innovation6 instanc instead instil insur intent interest interfer intern intervent invad invalu invari invest involv issu item januari japan job joe john jone joseph justifi keen keep knowledg labor lack larg last later latter law lazi lead leaner least legal legisl legitim less level leviathan life life-span lifetim light like limit line list litmus littl live locat logic long long-view longer longest loophol loss loui low low-incom lower lowest lowincom made major make male/female manag mani march marin market matter matur may mean meant measur medic meet member mention mentor method micklethwait militari millenni mimic mitig mobil modern mollifi money mortal mortgag move must myriad nation nativ navy/merchant necessari necessarili need net new next nichola none north nov/dec november/december nuanc number nutrit object oblig obtain obvious occup occur octob offer often old older one oner open opportun oppos outdo outnumb outright overlook overtak overview3 own ownership paper papers/books parent part particip particular partit pass pay pension per percent perenni perfect period person pervad philip pick pitfal place plan plans2 play polici polit politician popul population-control portend posit possess possibl postpon potenti preclud predict prefer preponder preserv pressur preval primarili privat probabl problem product professor profil program progress project prolong promis prospect prosper protect protection provid public publish punit purchas purpos push put qualiti question quixot r rais rate rather ratio readili real realist realm recal reckless recommend redistribut reduc reduct refer regard region regul regulatori reinvest relat reli remain remov replac requir resist resourc respons restrain result retir retire retirements2 reveal revenu rhetor rich right rise risk risk-tak role root rule rural russia safeguard safeti san save savvi saw scale scenario schumpet scope sector secur see seek seem segment sens september/october seri servic set sever share shift short shrink simpl simpli simplif sinc sink situat six skew slowdown smaller social societi socioeconom solut span specif spend spirit spoke stagnat stand standard state statist steadili steepest stem stifl still stop storm straightforward strategi strike strong stronger struck sub sub-replac submit subsid substant success suffici suggest suit super super-rich superfici support surplus sustain system tackl take tame task tax taxat taxpay tech tech-savvi technolog tend term test therefor third thoma though thought threaten time toward tragedi transmut transport tremend trust truth1 twilight two ultim undertax unemploy unfortun uniqu unit unnecessari unrealist unsustain unwilling upon upstart us use util valid valuat vari vast versus vest view virtual visibl vocat voodoo warfar wari wast way wealthi well well-off western whether widespread will winner wit within without woolridg work work-forc worker workforc workforce/retiree working-ag world wors would wrought x y year yet younger zeal